{"id":2645,"date":"2019-08-26T11:06:37","date_gmt":"2019-08-26T07:06:37","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/gccexchange.com\/blog\/?p=2645"},"modified":"2019-08-26T11:07:25","modified_gmt":"2019-08-26T07:07:25","slug":"germany-is-in-danger-of-a-technical-recession","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/gccexchange.com\/blog\/germany-is-in-danger-of-a-technical-recession\/","title":{"rendered":"Germany is in danger of a Technical Recession"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<ul class=\"wp-block-gallery alignleft columns-1 is-cropped wp-block-gallery-1 is-layout-flex wp-block-gallery-is-layout-flex\"><li class=\"blocks-gallery-item\"><figure><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"640\" height=\"480\" data-attachment-id=\"2647\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/gccexchange.com\/blog\/germany-is-in-danger-of-a-technical-recession\/freiburg-76217_640\/\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/gccexchange.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/freiburg-76217_640.jpg?fit=640%2C480&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"640,480\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;2.8&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;Canon DIGITAL IXUS 500&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;7.40625&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;1&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"Germany\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/gccexchange.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/freiburg-76217_640.jpg?fit=640%2C480&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/gccexchange.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/freiburg-76217_640.jpg?resize=640%2C480\" alt=\"\" data-id=\"2647\" data-link=\"http:\/\/gccexchange.com\/blog\/?attachment_id=2647\" class=\"wp-image-2647\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/gccexchange.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/freiburg-76217_640.jpg?w=640&amp;ssl=1 640w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/gccexchange.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/freiburg-76217_640.jpg?resize=300%2C225&amp;ssl=1 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\" \/><figcaption>Image by Gerd Altmann from Pixabay <\/figcaption><\/figure><\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Germany reported a contracting of their economy in the Q2 of\n2019, the first such contraction in years. The GDP decline puts Germany in\njeopardy of a technical recession this year which is defined as 2-consecutive\nquarters of negative growth. This is in contract with overall European growth\nwhich increased by 0.2% in the Q2. &nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Why did Germany Growth Contract?<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The narrowing of GDP growth was driven by a decline in\nexports. Economists and government leaders blame the cool-down in Germany\u2019s\nexport-driven economy on the uncertainty caused by the US-China trade war. The\nhealth of Europe\u2019s largest economy is vitally important to the rest of its\npartners, and German\u2019s slump has already had an impact on its major trading\npartners including France which experienced an unexpected decline in industrial\nproduction in June. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Additionally, economic sentiment in Germany is at its lowest\nsince the beginning of the financial crisis ten years ago. A potential no-deal\nBrexit, which is favored by the current U.K. government could further reduce\neconomic growth in Germany. Germany reported that the German ZEW indicator of\neconomic sentiment for Germany dropped to a -44.1 reading in August, which is\nthe worst level since December 2011 and down from -24.5 in July. Expectations\nhad been for a reading of -28. Additionally, the current situation index also\nfell, to -13.5, which is the worst since May 2010.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The German government reports that&nbsp; economic growth is expected to rise by &nbsp;0.5% in 2019, but it has refused to loosen its\nfiscal policy, still aiming to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.marketwatch.com\/story\/what-germanys-dismal-gdp-number-really-means-for-europe-2019-08-14\">balance\nits budget<\/a> year currently under the EU-imposed limit of 60% of GDP. You can\ntrack all the economic information that is released regarding German growth on\nthe <a href=\"https:\/\/www.iforex.in\/economic-calendar\">iFOREX broker economic\ncalendar<\/a>. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">European Growth Came in as Expected<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Eurozone reported Q2 GDP that came in as expected and\nremained steady at 1.1% year over year.&nbsp; Since\nGermany is European largest economy, the decline in German growth will\neventually spill over into European growth.&nbsp;\nEurozone June Industrial production showed sum cracks. Industrial\nproduction came in at -1.6% month over month compared to expectations that it\nwould contract by -1.5% month over month.&nbsp;\nThe year over year rate sank to -2.6% from -0.8% in June.&nbsp; <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Italian Political Data Could Weigh on European Growth<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Italy&#8217;s political drama could hamper stimulus that is\nprovide by the European Central Bank.&nbsp; It\nis likely that Prime Minister Conte will address Parliament on August 20, and a\nvote of confidence will likely follow.&nbsp;\nConte could resign, paving the way for open elections.&nbsp; <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">US-Chinese Trade War Effecting Europe<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">China will no longer be embarrassed on a world stage.\nPresident Trump does not have a way to back out of his treats that a trade war\nis easy to win. The brinkmanship is getting scary and although there are\nproblems in China, President Xi can quell these issues in a way that President\nTrump cannot. Additionally, President Xi is not up for re-election. Until this\ntrade war is eased, growth throughout Europe is likely to contract.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Germany reported a contracting of their economy in the Q2 of 2019, the first such contraction in years. 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